Core view

    ● copper export as the connection point of copper consumption at home and abroad, on the one hand, it is a weathervane to observe the recovery and change of overseas consumption under the background of high risk of secondary impact of current overseas epidemic situation; On the other hand, as an important part of domestic consumption, it influences the domestic consumption structure, so it is significant to understand the export of copper consumer goods. 

    ● copper exports in 2019 contained about 3.08 million tons of copper, accounting for 26 per cent of the total domestic consumption of 12 million tons in 2019(excluding refined copper exports) . In addition to copper (4%) of the market is often concerned about wire and cable, home appliances and motor three major areas, this part of the copper consumption of about 1.51 million tons, accounting for 13% of total copper consumption. 

    ● Exports, which account for about 9 per cent of domestic consumption, tend to be overlooked, mainly including small household appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, industrial and agricultural machinery, transport and copper products. The export quantity of actual small household appliances, electric power and electric parts except wire and cable, kitchen electricity, industrial and agricultural machinery, delivery equipment and copper products is huge, the quantity of copper used can not be ignored. The export volume of the above seven types of copper is about 1.04 million tons, accounting for 9 percent of the total domestic consumption.

     ● looking ahead to the fourth quarter, copper exports are expected to sustain a weak recovery as overseas demand warms. Export highlights in the fourth quarter mainly in the impact of new demand for small household appliances, small household electrical appliances transformers and electronic products, is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The uncertainty is that the repair of high-value consumer durables such as household appliances and cars is slow, and that the economic impact of the epidemic on major exporters of wire, cable and copper has not yet faded. Exports are expected to continue to repair in the fourth quarter, the decline narrowed. Neutral forecasts for year-on-year decline narrowed in the fourth quarter * * * 1.8 per cent, while optimistic year-on-year forecasts were flat. : : Main Risk points: recurrent outbreaks in major exporting countries and major changes in sino-us relations. Which parts of the export structure of copper consumer goods are easy to ignore? The export of copper consumer goods is the connecting point of copper consumption at home and abroad. On the one hand, under the background of the high risk of the second impact of the current overseas epidemic situation, it is a weathervane to observe the recovery and change of overseas consumption. On the other hand, as an important component of domestic consumption of copper, it affects the domestic consumption structure, it is of great significance to understand the export of copper consumer goods. Ratio and structure of export of copper consumer goods? There is much debate over the exact ratio of copper to exports. In this report, we have analyzed and combed the export data of various kinds of copper terminals for machinery, electrical appliances, copper products, etc. . Finally, we calculated that the export copper consumption in 2019 was about 3.08 million tons, it accounted for 26 per cent of total domestic consumption of 12M tonnes in 2019(excluding refined copper exports) . According to the industry and the corresponding customs codes, the consumption of exported copper can be divided into six categories: electrical and electrical components, household appliances, copper materials, electronics, transportation equipment, industrial and agricultural machinery and copper products, the main HS codes for each section are shown in Table 

    1. Consumer exports of copper, which account for about 9% of domestic consumption, tend to be overlooked. They include small household appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, industrial and agricultural machinery, transportation and copper products. When it comes to the export of copper consumer goods, the market is often concerned about the export of three major copper terminal products for wire and cable, household appliances and electrical machinery. The three sectors used about 1.42 million tons of copper in 2019, accounting for 12 percent of total copper consumption, according to customs data. In fact, we ignore the small household appliances, in addition to wire and cable power electrical parts, kitchen electricity, industrial and agricultural machinery, and copper products, such as exports of huge quantities of copper can not be ignored. About 1.04 million tons of copper were exported from the above seven categories, accounting for 9 percent of total domestic consumption.

    2.   Export highlights and uncertainties in the fourth quarter

    2.1 export bright spot for the Fourth Quarter 1: Small appliances and electronics, expected to grow by 10% * * * 20%

    2.2 export bright spot in the fourth quarter 2: Small dry-type transformers for home appliances are expected to support transformer export growth.

    2.3export uncertainty in the Fourth Quarter 1: Continuous repair of wire and cable exports or disruption by the Australian epidemic.

   2.4 export uncertainty in the fourth quarter -- A slow recovery for durable goods -- appliances and automobiles.

    2.5 Fourth Quarter Export Uncertainty 3: Copper with no visible signs of repair.

    Source: Futures Fair.

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