ABSTRACT: As the world shifts to renewable energy, the demand for base metals may surge in the coming years. A growing reliance on solar power will boost demand for some Non-ferrous metal as governments meet their commitments to curb global warming, Wood Mackenzie, a leading energy consultancy, said in a report on Monday, aluminium, copper and zinc are of particular concern. Demand for base metals could surge in the coming years as the world shifts to renewable energy. A growing reliance on solar power will boost demand for some Non-ferrous metal as governments meet their commitments to curb global warming, Wood Mackenzie, a leading energy consultancy, said in a report on Monday, aluminium, copper and zinc are of particular concern. The report outlines three scenarios in which demand growth depends on the extent to which the international community's efforts to combat global warming are successful. In response to climate change, 196 countries reached the historic Paris agreement in 2015, which aims to limit the rise in global average temperatures from pre-industrial times to less than 2 degrees Celsius, and try to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

1. The basic scenario for aluminium Wood Mackenzie assumes that temperatures will rise by 2.8-3c by the end of the century compared with pre-industrial times. Under this scenario, the industry's demand for aluminium would rise from 2.4 m tonnes in 2020 to 4.6 m tonnes in 2040. Aluminum is commonly used in solar panel frames and their structural components. If global temperatures rise between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius, analysts say, that would mean the industry would need between 8.5 m and 10m tonnes of aluminium a year by 2040. In the most optimistic scenario, where global temperature rises are kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius, the solar industry would account for 12.6 per cent of global aluminium consumption by 2040, up from 3 per cent in 2020.

2. Demand for copper will also "increase significantly" as solar becomes more mainstream, says Copper Wood Mackenzie. Copper is commonly used in high-and low-voltage transmission cables and solar collectors. In the baseline scenario, demand for copper from solar power would rise from 400,000 tonnes in 2020 to 700,000 tonnes in 2040. If global temperature rises are kept within 2C, the industry will consume 1.3 m tonnes of copper by 2040. If the temperature rise is kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius, copper consumption in the solar industry will jump to 1.6 m tonnes a year by 2040.

. Zinc, which is often used as a structural component in solar panels, is the only coating that offers cheap, long-lasting corrosion protection, zinc analysts say. At present, about 400,000 tons of zinc are consumed annually by solar power plants. If global temperatures rise by 2.8 to 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, that figure is expected to rise to 800,000 tons by 2040. If temperature rises are kept within 2C, zinc consumption will rise to 1.7 m tonnes a year by 2040. If global temperatures were kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius, the industry would consume 2.1 m tonnes of zinc a year by 2040. Notably, Wood Mackenzie's forecasts are based solely on demand from the solar industry and do not extrapolate to global aggregate demand. The report also notes that lower production costs and efficiency gains have lowered the global price of solar energy. "As a result, solar energy is cheaper than any other technology in many parts of the United States and several other countries around the world, " analysts said. "As costs continue to fall, the share of solar power in the power supply will rise and begin to displace other forms of power generation. This presents a huge opportunity for the base metals industry. "

Source: The Financial Times